Recent developments on the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have further escalated into a full-scale war, however dark and disturbing it may seem or seem, it is very important to go back in time to understand the Great Game behind this New Conflict Eastern Europe
Russia: An Emerging Energy Giant
After the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in the early 1990s and after many years of economic strife and internal strife, the leadership of President Vladimir Putin has finally ensured that Russia is now seen as an energy powerhouse. giant by becoming the world’s third largest oil producer and the world’s second largest natural gas producer. We learn that Russia has used its energy revenues to accumulate approximately $630 billion in foreign exchange reserves. For example, in 2021, Russia balanced its balance sheet with a relatively low oil price at $45 per barrel against an average of almost $70 per barrel.
In recent months, print and broadcast media around the world have begun to speculate about the likelihood of Russian aggression in Ukraine. The United States (USA) has also begun to signal that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is imminent. Consequently, US President Joe Biden’s administration began insisting that its threat of “serious economic consequences” would deter Russia from invading Ukraine.
During President Biden’s meeting with the German Chancellor on February 7, 2022, the United States and its allies were seen to stress that they were united on the consequences should Russia indeed invade Ukraine.
However, there was also a sense that the European Union’s (EU) internal anti-US/UK policies and its symbiotic relationship with Russia could undermine this proclaimed solidarity. A number of Central European countries and in particular Germany which are heavily dependent on Russia for their low-cost energy needs and hence their competitive manufacturing exports may, albeit quietly, be reluctant to side US sanctions against Russia.
Europe’s excessive dependence on Russian energy exports
Russia depends on income from Europe, Europe depends on energy supplies from Russia. Overall, Russia supplied about a third of Europe’s natural gas consumption, which is used for heating in winter, as well as for electricity and industrial production. The EU also depends on Russia for more than a quarter of its crude oil imports. Russia thus proved to be the greatest source of energy for this bloc of nations.
Because of this interdependence, the imposition of tougher sanctions on Russia will seriously affect its energy supplies and therefore, ultimately, dependent European countries will suffer. Indeed, few EU states are much more dependent than others. While Portugal and Spain make little use of Russian energy, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, received more than half of its natural gas and more than 30% of its crude oil supplies from the Russia. France derives most of its electricity from nuclear power; but it relied on imports from Russia to meet its fossil fuel needs. Furthermore, plans by Germany and other countries to phase out nuclear and coal power in the future would only further increase this dependence on Russia for energy supplies. .
The multiple US attempts to curb Russia-Europe pipeline projects from JFK to Reagan
Looking back, it becomes clear that such reliance on Russian energy did not happen overnight .. After World War II, the USSR and the United States began to close together as they sought to extend their hegemony to influence countries and bring them into their herd that were not officially aligned with one either of the superpowers. The Soviet Union began to extend favorable trade agreements and offered other economic assistance not only to the Warsaw Pact countries but also to other countries like Finland, the United Arab Republic and even India from a way that created a prolonged dependence on the Soviet Union. Consequently, as the Soviet Union began to develop oil and gas pipelines to Europe, the resulting growing energy dependence of nations in the region became a matter of great concern to the United States. Western Europe imported 6% of its oil from the Soviet Union alone in the 1960s. The planned new pipeline linking the Russian Far East and passing through several European countries such as Ukraine and Poland, eventually ending in Germany , was intended to increase the supply manifold. This increased dependence would surely have conferred significant coercive power on the Soviet Union. Consequently, these changing dynamics raised strategic concerns and sounded alarm bells in Washington.
The Kennedy administration in 1963 had tried to block the construction of the Druzhba or “Friendship” pipeline by imposing an embargo on the large diameter pipe on Soviet-aligned countries. Since this embargo alone was not enough to stop the project, the United States pressured its allies, particularly West Germany, a major exporter of pipes, to give themselves the hand. Although Britain refused to toe the American line; but somehow West Germany reluctantly agreed to have obtained a partial NATO embargo. However, despite this partial embargo, the pipeline was finally completed a year later.
After a period of almost two decades. Interestingly, the Reagan administration also faced a similar dilemma. In 1981, when the Soviet Union began building a gas pipeline linking Siberia to Western Europe, the United States again tried to persuade European allies such as France and Germany to join its embargo. not only on the supply of equipment for the pipelines of the project, but also on the financing. But when it all counts, Ries refused to comply with American dictates, then responded with sanctions to deter European companies from providing money or equipment for the project. However, this arbitrary action by the United States has led to strained relations between Western nations, sowing the seeds of division between the United States and Europe. This forced the United States to withdraw and lift the imposed sanctions within months of their imposition. The pipeline was finally completed three years later, in 1984.
Energy security: an effective foreign policy tool
Unlike his predecessors who refrained from blocking energy exports, President Vladimir Putin has skillfully combined his economic policy with geopolitical objectives. For example, Ukraine continued to receive the same heavily subsidized gas shipments from Russia in the early 2000s as when it was part of the Soviet Union a decade earlier. However, when the “Orange Revolution” at the end of 2004 led to the ousting of a pro-Russian leader, replacing him with one seeking to be closer to the West, the Russian gas company Gazprom immediately asked Ukraine to pay full market rates for its gas. .
However, when Ukraine refused to comply, Russia restricted the flow of gas through the pipelines, leaving just enough to fulfill its contracts with other Western European countries. This move by Russia, in addition to exerting economic pressure on the pro-Western government in Kiev, was also used as a basis for claiming that Ukraine was an unreliable gas transit country. This story then helped build support for a new pipeline called Nord Stream that brought gas directly from Russia to Germany.
The Nord Stream gas pipeline, commissioned in 2011, not only inflicted an annual loss of $720 million in transit taxes on Ukraine, but also dramatically increased Germany’s dependence on Ukraine’s energy supply. Russia. By 2020, Russia has started supplying Germany with around 75% of its natural gas, up from 35% in 2015. Natural gas is widely required in Germany to run the energy industry, meet the needs heating as well as producing electricity for long periods of time. use in the country.The Nord Stream pipeline transports natural gas from northwestern Russia across the Baltic Sea directly to Germany, with the pipeline handling a third of all Russian gas exports to Europe.
The Crisis in Ukraine: A US Attempt to Stop Nord Stream 2Now Nord Stream 2,
Which is an extension of the original Nord Stream gas pipeline, was approved by the German government in 2018 and construction was completed in September 2021. Its launch , however, suffered regulatory delays due to US pressure on European politicians.
Once operational, Nord Stream 2 would have ensured higher levels of Russian natural gas export to Germany, bypassing Ukraine and other current countries through which gas pipelines currently pass. This had added to US concerns that Russia may no longer be held hostage by pro-Western countries like Poland and Eastern Europe’s Ukraine over its energy exports.
In December 2021, after the onset of the current crisis in Ukraine, Europe tasted the potential consequences again when Russia stopped selling additional gas as it had done in the past. The following month, the International Energy Agency rushed to accuse Russia of undermining European energy security. With the commissioning of Nord Stream 2, the main concern of the two transit countries was to deprive them of billions of dollars in annual transit fees, which would lead to severe losses in annual revenue.
Interestingly, the total natural gas demand of the 27 EU members peaked at 390 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2019.In the same year, deliveries of Russian gas to these 27 EU members also peaked at 168 billion cubic meters, or 43% of the EU’s total natural gas consumption. However, due to the EU’s strong climate policy, demand is unlikely to reach this level again. In 2021, Russian natural gas exports to the EU are expected to amount to 135 billion cubic meters. With the commissioning of Nord Stream 2, it was estimated that Russia’s annual gas supply of 135 billion cubic meters, or nearly 110 billion cubic meters, or 81%, would pass through the two Nord pipelines. Stream. devastating for Ukraine.
Indeed, to sum up, Nord Stream 2 is considered Russia’s boldest attempt to break the EU. Russia has always worked to form an alliance with Germany and Austria, as well as with the Netherlands and Belgium against the east and the north.
October 2015 that the Nord Stream 2 project was in their interest and that they would continue to pursue it to its conclusion. In the first weeks after Nord Stream 2 was announced in mid-2015, there was no doubt that Germany saw it as its geopolitical project. Germany would earn $2 billion in transit taxes each year.It was only in January of this year, in the midst of this whole crisis, that he also signed energy agreements with Hungary to further incentivize Germany and Austria with potentially profitable transit tariffs that could result from such an agreement between Russia and Hungary. .
With the completion of construction of Nord Stream 2 in September 2021, the United States realized that it had only a small window of opportunity before the pipeline became operational and completely lost the energy markets of the United States. EU for the benefit of Russian influence. Russia would no longer need Ukrainian transit pipelines to meet almost 80% of its European energy supply obligations. Thus, America would lose the trump card it had held since 2014, when the Obama administration staged a coup and installed a pro-Western far-right militia regime in Kiev as part of a process totally unconstitutional election. Nord Stream 2 under EU policy said Moscow will use the pipeline to warp Europe to achieve Russian geopolitical goals. They expressed concern that the project had not been locked down by Germany and Russian partners by geopolitical concerns. Therefore, if the United States or its artificially installed regime in Kiev had made bold maneuvers against Russia, Moscow would have found itself trapped and unable to stop EU gas exports, because it would then supply the anti-Russian politicians an excuse to tidy up the North. the Stream 2 project completely. Therefore, Russia has no leverage in this situation as it desperately needed the completed Nord Stream 2.
Behind the ongoing maneuvers As to what these “bold maneuvers” are, one can only guess from the actions of Russia and the United States rather than from their words .As Moscow declares the breakaway regions of Lugansk and Donetsk recognized as independent countries, Russia believes that Kiev has planned to use this window of opportunity to mount a military offensive to retake these breakaway regions and unilaterally seek to break the agreements reached under the Minsk agreement. , Russian troops then moved on 24 to different regions of Ukraine; the Donbass region to dissuade Kiev from launching an offensive against the separatist states.
The Russian military also carried out a series of precision attacks eliminating Ukrainian military infrastructure and air defense systems. Russia may have finally decided to take this drastic step when the United States has already responded to the Russian declaration by pressuring its German counterparts to prevent the Nord Stream 2 project from waging war and the rhetorical invasion of the media. , because that has always been the goal of the United States.
We must understand that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine is an invention to sabotage ties between Russia and Germany, especially the lucrative energy partnership that has developed between the two over the past two decades. The objective behind the media propaganda blitz by the Western media has essentially been to isolate and vilify Russia on the international stage, to prevent it from forging deeper ties with Europe, to present it as a rogue out of control and continue to expand NATO’s presence eastward. , ever closer to the Russian borders. In addition to the aforementioned goals, the pressure created by Western media rhetoric and the US tussle eventually managed to generate enough political will within the EU to completely stall the progress of the Nord stream project. The Americans emerged victorious and succeeded in achieving their goal of reducing the European energy market’s dependence on Russian oil and gas, even when this is the case.
These are compilations of prevalent view points around root case of the conflict from different perspectives for your eyes and information… Team : NewzQuest
