Iran conflict could have ‘very significant’ impact on UK economy, OBR warns in spring forecast – live updates

Chancellor’s statement comes amid backdrop of economic and geopolitical turmoil, including gas prices at three-year highSpring forecast: Reeves insists Labour has ‘right economic plan’ as 2026 growth downgradedUK grocery price inflation has risen, showing that people are being hit in the pocket even before the surge in energy prices feeds through to the economy.Data provider Worldpanel by Numerator has reported that annual grocery inflation rose to 4.3% in February, after four consecutive months of falls, in a blow for households. That’s up from 4% in January.Sentiment towards BP and Shell has strengthened significantly off the back of oil price spikes. But it’s a complex picture. Neither company has production in Iran. But BP’s significant production in Iraq and Abu Dhabi risks being bottlenecked through disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. For Shell the same applies to its LNG facilities in Qatar and the Emirates. If a moderate sustainable regime is established