Benign transition or bloody civil war: what next for Iran after the bombing?

With the US and Israel apparently without a postwar plan for the country, we explore four possible scenariosMiddle East crisis – live updatesPiecing together what US and Israeli officials have said about the attack on Iran, its objectives appear to be to inflict maximum damage on the pillars of the country’s power, specifically its nuclear and missile programmes and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).The ultimate objective however, as repeatedly expressed by Donald Trump at least, is to pave the way for a popular uprising that would sweep away the cleric-led regime that has run the country for 47 years. Trump has presented the devastating assault as a once-in-a-lifetime chance for the people of Iran to “take back your government”. Continue reading…